Community & Business
23 February, 2025
Australian ag ‘well placed’ for the year ahead
AUSTRALIA’S agricultural sector is well placed for the year ahead despite expected rising global geopolitical tensions, an underperforming Asian economy resulting in low consumer confidence and a volatile energy market, Rabobank says in its newly-released annual outlook.
The agribusiness banking specialist says major agricultural sectors look set to once again move confidently into the coming year, albeit with some challenges ahead.
The report says prices of livestock commodities are expected to “fare well” in 2025 and grain prices also hold upside potential. And this is reflected in a forecast rise in the RaboResearch Australia Commodity Price Index for 2025.
Though prices of most agricultural commodities are not expected to reach the highs or lows seen over the past three years, the Outlook said.
Report lead author, RaboResearch general manager Australia and New Zealand Stefan Vogel, said price dynamics were likely to vary per sector.
“The beef price outlook is one of modest optimism, given fundamentals leave some room for minor upside movement,” he said.
“RaboResearch hold the view that in 2025 we may see stronger demand from feedlots for feeder cattle. The other positive factor for the sector is that we anticipate higher live export volumes in 2025.”
Farm input prices globally, both for fertilisers and plant protection products, are forecast to move sideways to slightly higher, the report said.
“Global urea and phosphate prices in Australian dollar terms have moved upwards from their Q2 2024 lows and, as Australia imports most of its fertilisers, the weaker AUD was a key driver in this move,” Mr Vogel said.
“Looking into 2025, we don’t expect very big price swings but see more upside than downside price risk and costs on Australian farms are expected to remain still well above the levels seen before Covid.”
