On The Land
30 January, 2025
Top global trends impacting Australian food and agri
Changed eating patterns due to the rising use of anti-obesity drugs, a shift towards drinking alcohol at home, and increasing demand for dairy products tailored to older consumers are among some of the top global trends in food and agriculture set to impact Australia in the next five years, according to Rabobank.
The global agribusiness banking specialist has developed a series of podcasts using global strategists from the bank’s RaboResearch division who examine the top trends “from farm to fork along the global supply chain for food and agriculture to 2030”.
It identified a number of major macro factors set to impact right across the sector which included: changing trade dynamics due to potential tariffs and government policies; an ageing global population; rapid innovation and adoption of AI across the supply chain; and a continuing focus on sustainability (with 2030 approaching as the deadline for a number of policy and corporate climate targets).
In addition, a large number of other global trends are seen emerging in – or continuing to drive – specific parts of the food and agri supply chain, according to podcast host, RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel.
“These range from, at consumer level, the growing prevalence of people using anti-obesity medication in the US and some European and Asian countries – and the resulting changed diets that are impacting shopping baskets – through to, at farm level, the expected rapid growth in many regions of the use of ‘biologicals’, natural products that enhance crop growth,” he said.
Mr Vogel said the impacts of geopolitics and potential new trade tariffs were expected to be increasingly felt across the global food and agribusiness supply chain in the next five years.
“Under another Trump presidency, or ‘Trump 2.0’, for many exporters dealing with the US, but also China, the threatened US import tariffs and potentially arising trade wars are a major concern on the way to 2030,” he said.
“Companies around the globe that are exporting to the US may need to consider strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including options like lowering prices to maintain competitiveness in the US market or investing in local production facilities in the United States to avoid tariffs altogether.
“However, the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and trade policies makes it challenging for companies to make long-term business decisions. On the positive side though, a strong US dollar might mitigate some of the tariff impacts.”
The use of so-called AOMs (anti-obesity medications) was already starting to have a discernible impact on the food industry in the US and other countries. Users tended to consume fewer calories and choose to eat different foods, Mr Vogel said.
He said studies show users of AOMs often cut down their consumption of calorie-dense and processed foods while their grocery spend on nutrient rich and perceived healthy foods, like yoghurt and fresh produce, rises.
On the beverage side, there was a notable global trend identified in the consumption of alcohol at home rather than in bars and restaurants.
“This has been largely driven by inflation and the higher cost of food and beverages outside the home, with consumers electing to ‘eat and drink in’ instead,” Mr Vogel said.
“The consumption of food and beverages at home rather than in restaurants and bars is felt through the entire beverage supply chain, from producers to retailer.”
Additionally, there had been a decline in global per capita alcohol consumption overall, and particularly wine and beer. This was seen to be due to a combination of demographic change – with an ageing population drinking less – and “younger consumers not necessarily as engaged in alcohol”.
At the dairy counter, an ageing global population was expected to drive demand for dairy products tailored to older consumers, the agribusiness specialist said.
“As people age, they often seek out products that support their health and wellbeing, such as protein shakes and medical nutrition,” Mr Vogel said.
“And this trend presents opportunities for the dairy industry to develop new products that cater to the needs of older consumers. This so-called ‘active silvers’ group of the population represents a growing category. China, for example, by 2030 is expected to have 100 million more people over the age of 55 than it did in 2020.”
At farm level, autonomous machinery and AI (artificial intelligence) were transforming farming operations around the world, and this trend was expected to continue at speed in the coming five years.
Mr Vogel said the use of driverless helicopters and large drones for crop spraying, for example, was becoming more widespread, aided by AI.
“Labour-intense sectors like fresh produce are already using these technologies and are expected to further adopt them for tasks that can reduce manual labour like spraying, planting, harvesting, processing and packaging,” Mr Vogel said.
The on-farm usage of ‘biologicals’ – naturally occurring
microorganisms, plant extracts, beneficial insects, and other organic matter – to enhance plant growth, control pests and diseases, and improve soil health and fertility – is also expected to rise in the five years.
Among other top trends in food and agri to 2030 discussed in the podcast series were:
• the growing popularity of smaller, snack-sized fruit and vegetables (such as berries and cocktail tomatoes) and those with enhanced convenience qualities, including pre-cut vegetables and easy-peel fruit
• increasing use of sustainable packaging, such as recycled-moulded fibre and
• an even stronger role expected to be played by climate risk and mitigation in companies’ strategic and operational plans, including in diversified sourcing and business growth.
The RaboResearch Top 2030 Global Trends podcasts are available at RaboResearch Podcasts or search ‘RaboResearch’ in any major podcast app.
